Real Estate Report on Victoria China USA and Australia

UNITED STATES.  Phoenix real estate rises with Canadian buyers.  Bob Major returned to Phoenix in October in search of more bargains like the four empty houses he purcahsed in 2010.  The retired builder from Vancouver instead found real estate about 20 per cent higher and stiff competition.  "There's been an extreme turn" Major, 66, said in an interview at a Chandler, Arizona pizzeria, sitting beside his wife, Wendy.  "We put bids on thirty properties and only got two."  The Phoenix housing market, down 55 per cent from peak values with more than two-thirds of borrowers owing more than their properties are worth, is starting to recover as demand grows and inventory shrinks.  Sales rose in November for the 12th straight month on a year-over-year bases, and distressed real estate accounted for the smallest share of purchases since 2008, according from research from DataQuick. Low prices attracted flocks of Canadians taking advantage of 28 percent currency gain versus the U.S. dollar since March 2009--and winters with an average high of 19 degrees Celsius.  Canadian edged out of Californians last year as the largest group of outside buyers, with 4.2 percent of purchases.

AUSTRALIA'S love affair with property is about to be tested. Right now is not a time to be buying real estate in Australia. Residential prices are likely to fall up to 60 per cent, possibly even more, within five years. Artificially low interest rates, high loan-to-value lending practices, overinflated property prices, unrealistic vendor expectations and Australia's large number of second mortgages. Prices will be on a slippery slope next year when interest rates begin to rise, commodity prices peak and China's demand for Australian exports slows. US economist Harry Dent recently said Australian house prices were 50 per cent overvalued. Sydney real estate agent Charlie Bailey of Ray White Inner West believes there will not be a burst because there is no bubble. "In Sydney, we have 20,000 people a week looking for accommodation and not enough supply. “I can't see the city's housing infrastructure changing any time soon so a prediction of a 60 per cent fall in property prices is a big call."  In recent years, Australian cities have experienced Vancouver-style real estate booms, with housing prices soaring from Sydney to Melbourne.  Like Vancouver, buyers from China help drive Australia’s speculative real estate market. Faced with mounting public pressure, in 2010 the Kevin Rudd government introduced strict regulation aimed at foreign ownership.  Under the new rules, the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) screens foreigners (including temporary residents and students) to determine their land purchase eligibility. Foreigners can’t buy existing properties and must build on vacant land within two years of purchase or face government-ordered sale.  Scofflaws face capital gains confiscation.  Finally, before foreign homeowners leave Australia, they must sell.

CHINA’S Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd, the second-biggest developer in China by sales value, on Monday forecast flat 2012 sales and said the wider property market would be gloomy in the first quarter, with no improvement until after the Lunar New Year in late January. The developer and many of its peers reported sharp double-digit annual drops in sales in December as the mainland Chinese property market felt the pinch from the central government’s efforts to lower home prices and restrict property purchases.  Annual growth in real-estate investment in China, a main driver of the economy, slowed in December to its lowest pace in a year, falling in tandem with property sales revenues, but analysts predict the worst is yet to come.  A Reuter’s poll last week showed that analysts expect average home prices in China to fall between 10 and 20 percent this year, with the biggest declines in major cities such as Beijing as well as highly speculative markets of Ordos and Wenzhou.  

Canada’s real estate market is growing at a snail’s pace, reinforcing hopes the housing sector will glide to a soft landing instead of crashing.  There are two key concerns hanging over the housing market: the level of real estate prices in Vancouver and the condominium construction boom.  Neither of those markets has shown signs of a catastrophic decline, even though some people have been predicting it for years.

VANCOUVER is starting to feel the effects of a slowing real estate market on its overall economy, despite continued population and job growth.  The city continues to enjoy above average population growth, while the pace of job creation and level of employment quality are well above the national average.  While improving recently, the unemployment rate is relatively high, just one tick below the national average, while the pace of real estate activity is starting to slow.

VICTORIA.  With all the doom and gloom we hear about one may wonder how real esate and the Victoria economy in general is doing.  Victoria and Victoria Real Estate have always held up pretty good compared to the rest of the contry.  A recent article in the Times Colonist by Andrew A. Duffy reads:  Though the city has seen its economic momentum slow.  Victoria's diversified economy has insulated it from feeling the brunt of the global financial slowdown, according to a report from CIBC World Markets.  The Metrolpolitan Economic Activity Index showed Victoria with a score of 13.6 ranked seventh among 24 Canadian cities, sandwiched between Calgary at 13.9 and Kitchener, ON, at 13.2.  "The momentum in Victoria is starting to slow down, but the level of activity in Victoria is still relatively OK," said Menjamin Tal, senior economist at CIBC World Markets.  "It says to me that Victoria has been able to maintain its position for a while now without losing big momentum, and that reflects clearly it has a fairly diversified economy and is not a slave to the value of the dollar or oil prices."

Beijing:  The most expensive apartment ever built in the country.  The luxury penthouse apartment of more than 1,000 sq m is on sale for Rmb300,000 per sq m, or a total price tage of more than Rmb300m ($46.2m), according to an unnamed representative of the developer.

I hope you find this helpful. Once in a while I post information that is sent to me from the President of PacWest International Management, Mr. Jim MacNaught.  Please stay tuned for more real estate updates...

Stable Past- Stable Future

January 22, 2012

Prepared by Jim McNaught

President of Pacwest International Management Inc.

What truly sets the Greater Victoria region apart is its unique combination of economic opportunity and its superior quality of life. Entrepreneurs with ventures of all sizes comprise more than 17,000 businesses in the region. Technology, tourism, marine, health and service industries are all thriving sectors, and the region has become a world leader in environmental services and technologies, with world-class research activities in the field.

Advantage Victoria

• Home to 770 high tech companies, many of which focus on sustainability, like the Vancouver Island Technology Park which makes its home in an environmentally sound building
• An expert labour force made up of the best and brightest
• An advanced technology industry worth $900 million and specializing in biotech, e-business, printing/publication, knowledge-based services, software development and telecom
• Regional economy is geared for growth—Small businesses are the rule with nearly 22,000 in operation, yet major employers also provide jobs in tourism, transportation, government and defence
• More than 72% of all residents over the age of 15 have some post-secondary training
• Solid foundation in service, trade, health care and public administration
• Focused on developing opportunities in research, marine sciences, education and the advanced technology industry
• Household internet usage ranks among the highest in Canada
• #2 for Cost of Doing Business in the Pacific Northwest – KPMG Competitive Alternatives Study
• World-class ferry system’s transport passengers to mainland British Columbia and US destinations
• Victoria is just 35 minutes by plane from Seattle and Vancouver and direct flights depart daily for Toronto
• 4 Post Secondary Institutions
• World-class transportation network –Source investincanada.gc.ca-2012

 As Canadians enter 2012, a report from the BMO Retirement Institute - Where do Canadian plan to retire, and why? - has found that Victoria, British Columbia is Canada's hottest retirement destination for Boomers.

 According to the study, conducted by Leger Marketing for the BMO Retirement Institute, Canadian Boomers chose Victoria, B.C. as the number one spot to retire within Canada (15 per cent). "With its mild climate, breathtaking scenery and outdoor lifestyle, it's no wonder that so many Canadian Boomers have chosen Victoria as the ideal place to retire," said Tina Di Vito, Head of the BMO Retirement Institute. "Additionally, a good portion of Victoria's population is over 65 years of age and there's a strong health care network in the region; this adds to its appeal for Canadians considering relocating upon retirement.“  Source BMO Jan 4, 2012

According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's (CMHC's) Fall Victoria Housing Market Outlook Report, the level of new residential construction activity in the Victoria Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) will total 1,700 housing starts in 2011, and edge up to 1,850 housing starts in 2012.

"Numerous multi-family projects are currently flowing through the construction pipeline (this includes the planning and development approvals stages) across the CMA. Multi-family construction activity will remain consistent with the ten-year average for the CMA," said Travis Archibald, CMHC Senior Market Analyst, "while competition from a well-supplied resale market is expected to keep single-detached housing starts below their historical average both this year and next."

After moving into buyers' territory in 2011, balanced resale market conditions are expected to return in 2012, as the demand for existing homes picks up and resale supply edges down. As a result of buyers' market conditions, the average MLS® price is forecast to decline 0.9 per cent in 2011 to $500,000, before increasing to $505,000 in 2012.  Source CMHC

Oak Bay Market Update - December 2011

Real estate sales activity remained steady throughout Victoria and I am very grateful for new, referring and existing clients that have allowed me to help with their real estate needs and wants this year.  For those of you that know me this won't be a big surprise but for those of you that don't I would like to explain. I take pride in presenting full service for clients and I've been unable to do this for the last couple of months (that is why there are no active listings showing up) and would like to let you know why.  I was given the opportunity to help a friend whose going through some pretty severe medical treatments.  I know it sounds funny to use the word opportunity but there is nothing better for the sole than the occasional reordering of priorities and there is nothing better than watching someone deal with a lethal illness for helping to understand that. 

Of course my friend thinks we are just a bunch of talking monkeys on an organic spaceship flying through the universe...just to keep it in perspective...smile.

Back to Oak Bay business...below is a graph showing the Historial Average Prices for single family homes in Oak Bay as well as the averages prices from June 2009 to June 2011.  This graph comes out every six months from the Real Estate Board and I always find it interesting and thought you might as well.

Wishing you all the best in which ever way you celebrate the Winter Solstice.  "With all the strains and worries and fears of the today's world our ultimate saving grace is that we're human beings and we have each other." 

 

 

 

Located in the Fairfield area of Victoria, I just sold this House at 418 Arnold Avenue.

View this recently sold House or see all my home sales.

Below is a graph from the Victoria Real Estate Board showing all the Single Family Dwellings sold in the Victoria and Oak Bay areas by Price Range. For example in the Victoria area the most expensive home sold as of September 1, 2011 was just below $3 Million.  I find this graph useful to see where the activity is in various price ranges.  I hope it may be helpful to you as well.  Please stay tuned for more real estate updates!

U.S. Property Tax Rules Hit Real Estate Hard for Canadians!

A strong loonie and depressed U.S. real estate prices have led to a buying binge south of the border by Canadians. Canadian's are now the largest non-American buyers of U.S. real estate.  Many purchasers, however, have only a vague idea of what they've committed to from a tax and legal standpoint. "There's a presumption among people that the laws must be the same in the U.S. and Canada.  A lot find out otherwise only after they buy," said David Altro, a Montreal lawyer who also practices in the United States.  Altro, who specializes in cross-border tax, property and estate-planning issues, is the author of a 2009 guidebook titled Owning U.S. Property the Canadian Way.  An updated version of the book is on the way because of significant changes looming in U.S. estate tax, starting in 2013.  Altro said those changes will be "expensive and onerous" to many Canadians if they don't do their homework and/or get advice.

 

Starting Jan. 1, 2013, the exemption level on estate tax for owners of U.S. property drops to $1 million in worldwide assets from $5 million, and the maximum tax rate on U.S. property rises to 55 per cent from 35 per cent.  Although the threshold may still seem high, Canadians must include in the calculation the value of their RRSPs and life insurance payable at death, which pushes a lot more people into the tax zone.

Estate tax isn't the only significant difference between the two countries. Florida counties have probate rules that could cause a lengthy delay and expensive disbursement to settle the estate of a Canadian who dies owning property there.  If a property owner becomes mentally incapacitated, no transaction is possible until Florida's guardianship requirements have been met. "A Quebec incapacity mandate often isn't valid in Florida," Altro noted.

Nor does Florida recognize handwritten holographic wills, as Quebec does.

 

Canadians who give U.S. property to relatives are liable for U.S. gift tax as well as Canadian capital-gains tax (determined using the fair market value).  Adding your children to the title also could put you on the hook for a taxable gift, and leave the property vulnerable to seizure if the children have marital or financial problems.  Altro said one way for Canadians with significant property to minimize hassles, taxes and property transitions is to create a cross-border trust, with one or more people as trustees.  "The trust doesn't die when the person does, so you can avoid estate tax," he said.  Having a corporation own U.S. property isn't usually a good idea, he said, since the U.S. capital-gains tax is higher for corporations; states such as Florida can tack on an additional levy of their own, and the Canada Revenue Agency may charge a "shareholder benefit tax" to those who make use of outside property owned by a corporation.

Altro says tax and estate planning is always best done beforehand to avoid complications and surprises. So before signing for that Florida condo, make sure you know where you stand. 

I hope you find this helpful. Once in a while I post information that is sent to me from the President of PacWest International Management, Mr. Jim MacNaught.  Please stay tuned for more real estate updates...

 

PacWest International Management Inc.
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James McNaught, MBA, President

I just finished uploading this House for sale, 418 Arnold Avenue, Victoria, BC

This Fairfield home was built in 1945, a two bedroom/two bath Craftsman Home has already stood the test of time and proven itself strong, square and worthy. Lovely woods throughout and fabulous oak floors. Gas appliances, a working fireplace, cared for with taste and style; if elegance is simplicity then this is the perfect example. Even a delightful, retro rec-room downstairs with sliding glass doors leading out to a side deck and the huge, sun-filled back yard and garden. And what a garden; tilled and loam rich and a great producer of all your favorite vegetables and berries. Sit in the sun, play with the kids and watch your garden grow. And when you do have to leave the grounds, the world is a short walk away because this is the most convenient neighborhood in the city. Seriously, the beach is three blocks away, Thrifty Foods is a block, every bus route runs nearby, five parks are less than ten minutes away. The Lieutenant Governor's Residence abuts the backyard and you gotta figure they know a good neighborhood, right? The photos give you an idea. Get out of the craziness for a bit and be charmed by the sanity of this lovely home.

Just a Sampling of Fairfield Plaza

I just sold this Fairfield House located in at 610 Normanton Court, Victoria, BC.

View this recently sold House or see all my home sales.

 

I just sold this House at 812 Intervale Avenue, Victoria, BC.  During the month of July in Esquimalt there was fifteen single family homes sold and year-to-date a total of seventyseven.   The price range of sales in July were between $300,000. - $649,000. in Esquimalt.  Currently there are over five thousand listings on MLS® in Victoria.  I don't remember having this amount of inventory for buyers since 1995. Statistically, September will be more active with Victoria properties selling.

View this recently sold House or see all my home sales.

Uplands Real Estate: This home that I sold is located in the Uplands, which is part of the Oak Bay 'map area'.  This home is located at 3035 Uplands Road.

In Oak Bay for the month of June there were a total of 19 homes sold. Five out the nineteen sold start at $1,000,000. price range.  The total homes sold year-to-date in Oak Bay is 142.  If you have any questions regarding Victoria real estate please contact me direct at 250.744.4556 or email: brenda@brendarussell.ca  twitter:brussell6  Licensed since 1990 - be happy to help.

View this recently sold House or see all my home sales

Below is a photo of Oak Bay Secondary School located on Cranmore Road.

Media Release from PacWest on Real Estate June 30, 2011

James McNaught, President of PacWest International, sent this information to me which I thought was very interesting and wanted to share with you. 

 

Located in the Portage Inlet, I just sold this waterfront House at 2832 Murray Drive, Victoria, BC.

View this recently sold House or see all my home sales

 

Where are the Chinese Buying Overseas Property in 2011?

PacWest China-Beijing

On a sunny Saturday in early June, Larry Zhou strolled the floor of a property exhibition in Hong Kong, wondering whether it was time to buy another home -- not in the city, where residential prices have soared 50 percent in the past two years, but maybe in Thailand or Malaysia. “My wife and I have been thinking about investing outside of the country since we already own an apartment in Shanghai, “Zhou, a 38-year-old civil engineer, said in an interview at the Hong Kong Convention & Exhibition Centre before wrapping up a business trip and returning home. “I’ve known people in Shanghai who like to bring their money and invest in Hong Kong properties, but I think Hong Kong is way too expensive.”

Investors are grabbing everything from $68,000 foreclosed condominiums in Florida to $2 million beachfront villas in Vietnam; a buying spree fuelled by China’s surging wealth that mirrors the country’s expanding influence in markets for gold, oil and food. The search for overseas property accelerated in the past seven months as the governments in Hong Kong and Beijing imposed purchasing and financing limits, steps that are starting to cool off domestic markets.

In North America, moderate weather, good schools and established Chinese communities are drawing buyers to cities such as Vancouver, which had the third-highest housing costs among English-speaking cities worldwide in 2010, according to Canada’s Frontier Centre for Public Policy. Hong Kong and Sydney were first and second.

The Chinese are usually in a hurry when they shop, often buying at least two houses per visit, paying cash because they don’t have time to take out a mortgage. Amanda Sun bought three houses in Australia's coastal city of Gold Coast after visiting the town just once as a tourist. The 33-year-old owner of a small trading firm is one of thousands of Chinese who are beginning to export China's house price inflation abroad by piling into property markets overseas. Stifled by a clampdown on property speculation at home, cash-rich Chinese are buying up homes in Australia, the United States, Britain and Canada instead, countries popular with Chinese students studying abroad.

Property developers are courting the international rise of the wealthy Chinese home buyer with ardour, marketing their projects in Shanghai and Beijing. CB Richard Ellis has set up a special arm to help Asian buyers purchase homes abroad. China's biggest real estate website, Soufun Holdings, has been bringing Chinese investors to tour Western cities in the past two years

"The Chinese are my most important clients now," said Cindy Chan, chairman of AGC Property Centre Pty Ltd, Sun's property agent in Australia. "The number is growing very fast." Business is so good that Chan visits China every other month to showcase homes on sale in Australia. She plans to start an office in Shanghai in May.

Chinese interest has also flooded the U.S. market, with a high increase on the number of enquiries received from Chinese buyers. Although there is an abundance of discounted property on the U.S. market, it is the lifestyle that Chinese investors desire from the States and that is what attracts their interest. Since the recession there has been a drastic drop in the number of Chinese investors, but industry experts are predicting 2011 to be the year they return.

Canada’s real estate market has always attracted Chinese buyers, but experts in the country have stated that the Chinese buyers are flooding into Vancouver and Toronto, while in the past they were generally only interested in the Richmond real estate market.

Chinese investors are used to the steep prices offered in Canada as the prices represent what’s on offer at home for them, so Vancouver and Toronto house prices are more affordable for many Chinese investors, which has created an increased interest from mainland China. As with the U.S., Chinese investors are drawn in with Canada’s stability and favourable lifestyle.

These are just a few of the markets Chinese buyers are entering; because of restrictions of ownership in China, investors are looking at alternative real estate markets to buy into, targeting markets that offer stability and high-end properties. The annual “Spring of Shanghai” Real Estate Expo reported an expanding enthusiasm for investing in property overseas, with the exhibition noting that Chinese buyers are interested in investing in countries they can send their children to study in, typically targeting English-speaking communities.

But while Chinese buyers, or any buyers for that matter, may be welcome in severely depressed property markets such as those in the United States, the UK or parts of Europe, the inflows of Chinese money are causing headaches for economies elsewhere which are growing at a much faster clip. Singapore and Hong Kong, for example, have found it tough to keep a lid on surging home prices amid strong demand from Chinese nationals, despite government efforts to cool the market and stave off destabilising asset bubbles.

Shut Out in Australia

Australia clamped down on foreign buying of homes in the country last year in a bid to calm buoyant prices. While Chinese buying has provided a welcomed boost to struggling U.S. cities, there has been a backlash in Australia, long a magnet for Asian immigrants. The federal government introduced rules in April 2010 requiring temporary residents to seek approval to buy existing property and sell when leaving. Buyers living overseas can purchase only newly built housing. The changes, which reversed a 2008 easing of restrictions on foreign investments in property, came after local homebuyers and real estate groups blamed demand from overseas investors, particularly Chinese, for inflating prices. Values rose 5.8 percent in 2010 after soaring almost 14 percent in the previous year, government statistics show.  “There’s a whole field of Chinese buyers wanting to buy, but they can’t purchase existing properties here anymore,” said Garth Turnbull, property consultant at City Residential in Melbourne. “There are some sales to parents whose children are studying here. That used to be just part of the market, but now it’s basically all that’s left.”

Capital Controls

Chan and other property agents could be a lot busier if not for China's strict capital controls. Chinese citizens are barred from buying more than $50,000 worth of foreign currencies a year, restricting them to smaller property purchases when they venture abroad. There is talk that the cap may be raised to $200,000, but that is just unconfirmed chatter so far. "The government worries about whether Chinese investors have a good understanding about foreign real estate markets," said Li Wei, an economist at Standard Chartered in Shanghai. To beat the rules, Sun, like many other Chinese, turned to her relatives for help. They pooled their annual quotas together to give her enough foreign currency to put a downpayment on the three houses, which were worth a total Australian $3 million ($3.1 million). Others sneak their money out of China by disguising the funds as import bills. Although the annual limit for Chinese citizens to buy foreign currencies is just $50,000, it’s not proving to be any real obstacle, as many of the wealthiest buyers have located their trade companies or offices in countries without currency restrictions, enabling them to pay through their companies’ offshore accounts. Such cracks in China's capital controls will help feed demand for houses elsewhere. "We think that in a relatively short period of time and in a way that is measurable, Chinese buyers are going to account for something on the order of 10-20 percent of the London market," said Gerald Allison, a director at global real estate agency DTZ in London. So far, there is no official or private estimate on the total amount of Chinese outbound real estate investment. Some developers hope China will relax its capital controls over time, albeit in its characteristic "gently" manner. After all, China needs to slow the rapid build-up of its foreign exchange reserves, which at $2.85 trillion are the world’s largest and a headache for the country. Freeing up Chinese investment overseas can do just that.

Companies Prudent

In contrast to individual Chinese investors, Chinese firms are more cautious about moving abroad. Although some developers including SOHO CHINA have eyed foreign markets over the last two years, they have yet to announce any deals. "It takes time for Chinese companies to understand the rules of the game abroad," said David Chen, a Shanghai-based executive director of CB Richard Ellis for China residential sector. He said Chinese developers would most likely start from small deals and team up with foreign firms. China insurers such as China Life and Ping An Insurance are waiting in the wings as well. Beijing allows insurers to invest 10 percent of their total assets -- 5.2 trillion yuan at the end of February -- in commercial real estate markets, at home and abroad. On the whole, however, insurers can only park 15 percent of their total assets outside China. "They are actively watching (to invest in real estate market abroad) to diversify their investment portfolios, but haven't reached any deals yet," said CBRE's Chen.

We are proud to announce that this Jun 14th, 1:00 PM to 3:00 PM we will be hosting an Open House at 3035 Uplands Road in the Uplands, Oak Bay neighborhood, Oak Bay, Victoria. This is an opportunity to visit this excellent House for sale in beautiful Uplands, Oak Bay.

Please come with any questions you may have. In the meantime you can take a virtual tour of this Uplands, Oak Bay House for sale.

As always please do not hesitate to give me a call at 250.744.4556 if I can answer any questions before the open house, or if you would like to book a private showing.

Brenda Russell
Royal Lepage Coast Capital Realty Oak Bay